Friday, December 12, 2014

Is it too early to judge this Cavaliers team? Quick notes on tonight's game

   

    
 As the Cleveland Cavaliers look to regroup for a showdown with the New Orleans Pelicans after their loss to the OKC Thunder, questions continue to surface about this team. Lebron James, who has been under a microscope as only he could, missed a marquee game because of a sore knee. This will certainly just fuel the fire of the critics who say he's slowing down. James is even being ridiculuosly tallied on his dunks this year and how he's dunking at a much lower rate. The notion that James is slowing down is absurd, he is still putting up great numbers, leading this team in just about every important team category. While his scoring is relatively down, we noted that scoring is down across the league in general. Kobe Bryant leads the league in scoring at 25.5 PPG, a few years ago that would have been good enough for maybe 4th or 5th in scoring so we can give James a pass on that.
    As you watch the Cavs progress through this early stage of the season however, there are certainly concerns. The Cavaliers are not a good defensive team. James is far and away their best defender,  their other two marquee players (Love and Irving) are average defenders at best. Watching the game tonight, with James out and Kevin Durant still on a minute restriction, the attention turned to the point guard battle between Russell Westbrook and Kyrie Irving. However, from the onset you can tell the difference between the two players, Westbrook started defending Irving and was on him much of the night, while Irving began the game defending Andrew Roberson (who?????).  To say that the Cavs can get out of the East is a fair argument. The East is a weak conference, not taking anything away from the Toronto Raptors, but if the Raptors are first in standings, then you can certainly see Cleveland steamrolling their way to the finals on pure offensive firepower.
   The cavaliers also need to figure out what to do about Dion Waiters. Waiters' game simply does not revolve around standing in a corner and jacking up jumpers, and he certainly is not making any attempts to try to hide his believe that his game is more than that. The Cavs got outscored by 17 with Waiters on the floor today.
   On another note, even with James out, Kevin Love still did not get many touches, attempting just 13 shots, he finished with 18 points and 16 rebounds. Clearly Irving has made a point that after James, he will certainly be the one taking the most shots on the team. He finished with 21 shot attempts for 20 points and 6 assists. Again, maybe it is still a bit early for this team to judge on what the final product is. Meanwhile we can continue to microscope the fact that Lebron isn't dunking as much as he used to.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

NBA season opening night, what can we expect?

Image from Rantsports.com
Opening night in the NBA is finally here. It's been a very interesting offseason with a lot of changes across the NBA, from Lebron James returning to Cleveland, to the return of Derrick Rose and Kobe Bryant, there will be a lot of excitement over the next few days. Tonight's three games will feature a lot of story lines to keep an eye on.
The San Antonio Spurs open up their tittle defense against the only team to really give them a scare in last year's playoffs in the Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs will once again lead the league in wins while holding their core players to less than 35 minutes a game. Not much to be said about the defending champions, they will steamroll through the regular season with little excitement for anybody but the most passionate pure basketball fan.
 The Mavericks took the Spurs to 7 games in last year's first round but return a very different team. On paper, this seems like a much better team from a year ago, they upgraded at the Center and Small Forward position in Parsons and Chandlers as well as bring in Jameer Nelson from Orlando. However, we are skeptical on if its really going to make a difference in the ultra competitive Western Conference. The Mavericks are hoping Chandler can return to his Defensive Player of the year playing after a subpar 2013-2014 injury plagued season. After playing only 31 games and averaging 8.7 PPG and 9.6 RPG he looks to bounce back in a major way. The Mavericks only need him to be that shot blocking presence that anchors the defense, anything he does on the offensive end is a bonus but we don't believe it will happen.
Chandler has never played a full season and the highlight of his career so far has been his contributions in that 2011 title team, and his defensive player of the award that was overshadowed by a horrendous performance in the second round agains the Pacer's Roy Hibbert a year ago. We are skeptical as if his addition to the team will really translate into meaningful jump in the standings.
At point Guard, the Mavericks certainly upgraded over Calderon, while Calderon is a steady floor general that will make good decisions and take good shots, he is not the offensive threat that Nelson is. In addition to that, the ball will spend most of the time in Ellis' and Nowitzki's hands, so Nelson will be the beneficiary of a lot open jump shots something he was good at in Orlando in the Howard Turkoglu days. Finally, the most intriguing story about the Mavericks is all about Parsons, he spent all summer talking about how he felt he was ready to be that third star in Houston, and now he will get the chance to back that talk up.
On the other hand, the game we are most intrigued about is the one with the least TV advertisement, the Orlando Magic vs the New Orleans Pelicans. Why? one name: Anthony Davis, after a wonderful summer with team USA it is clear that Davis is truly the NBA's next superstar, he is a stat stuffer who doesn't need touches (although he should be getting plenty of touches). His continued development makes the most sense, and he should benefit from a full season with Jrue Holiday running the point. Should they put it all together, we see the Pelicans as the dark house to maybe sneak in as the #8 seed in the Western Conference, Davis will be an All-Star and a first team All NBA player by season's end.
The final game of the night will be all about the return of Kobe Bryant, and what a better way to start the season than to go against what many consider the best shooting guard in the league right now in James Harden? Houston should easily win this game, but a lot of people will keep their eyes out on them after they missed out on Chris Bosh and let Parsons walk.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Top Power Forwards entering 2014-2015: #3 Blake Griffin

   
Image from Thenbasocial.com
We continue our rankings with Blake Griffin as our #3 Power Forward entering the upcoming NBA season.  Griffin is one of the most polarizing players in the league, he is constantly criticized for not coming up big in playoff games, being reliable in the fourth quarter, and a lack of a post game. That being said, it cannot be argued that Griffin had another tremendous year. Griffin finished the year with averages of 24.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and an impressive 3.9 APG. Griffin finished in the top 10 in scoring and finished third in MVP voting. 
    Blake averaged a career high in scoring this year, and contrary to believe it was not all due to his athletic ability. Griffin developed a nice handle to go along with his physical prowess. He loves to face his opponent up more often than he loves to back them down in the low post. He catches the ball around the high post area and likes to to use his handles against other bigs to attack the rim towards the middle of the floor. He is a nightmare in the pick and roll coverage, often times posterizing defenders that are late to recover.  In addition, he developed a mid ranger to keep his defenders honest and opened up more pick and pop plays.
     His low post game increased dramatically this year, after Paul's early season injury he increased his low post shot attempts to nearly 6 a game. Griffin is comfortable on both sides of the low post area(although he prefers the left side). Griffin has a smooth over-the-shoulder left handed hook, that he uses constantly to go along with his right handed hook, look at the following three plays. He has a series of countermoves highlighted by his up and under shot fakes. Griffin loves to bully defenders with his shoulder often times knocking them out of position and giving him easy layups. 
     Griffin also got to the free throw line last year 8.5 per game and shot a career high 71% from the stripe, we see no reason as to why this cannot continue to get better. The flip side to that is that 71% is still not a good percentage for somebody who is needed on the floor at the end of games, something that hampers his performances. Griffin continues to be a nightmare in fastbreak situations, he is still one of the league leaders in dunks and racks up quite a few points on fast break alley-oops.
      In addition to this, Griffin has dropped his rebounding totals, after averaging a double double his first two seasons, he has failed to do so his previous two. Griffin averaged 9.5 RPG, that is good but not overly impressive. While it is true that Jordan consumes most of the available rebounds, we don't see why Griffin cannot average a double double(the perfect example of this, is Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic). Griffin, is also not a good defender, he averages less than 1 BPG, and cannot be entrusted with the job of guarding the other teams premier big man(that job is entrusted to Jordan). 
     Griffin has all the tools to be the #1 Power Forward in the world, but his constant struggle in the playoffs, as well as his unreliability in the fourth quarter of games continues to hinder him. Griffin's stats dropped during the playoffs to 23.5 PPG and 7.4 RPG, and averaged a ridiculous 4.1 personal fouls. Griffin must find a way to rebound at an elite rate again while staying on the floor during crunch time. While his assists numbers are great, he needs to be able to average at least one block and improve his one on one defense. If griffin does this, we expect him to be higher in our rankings the following year.
Here are his top 10 plays of the year.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Top Power Forwards entering 2014-2015: #4 Anthony Davis

   
Image from USAtoday.com
      At #4 in our rankings is Anthony Davis of the New Orleans Pelicans. Davis coming in at #4 was up to heavy debate over his position. Is Davis a Power Forward or a Center? He spent a lot of last season at both positions, and his versatility at a time where there aren't many true centers in the league makes it even more tricky. Ultimately though, he is listed as a Power Forward and the Pelicans acquisition of center Omer Asik is a good indication that on opening night Davis will be starting as a Power Forward.
      Davis made huge leaps in his second year, after averaging 13.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 1.8 BPG as a rookie, Davis increased his production to an impressive 20.8 PPG, 10 RPG, and 2.8 RPG and his first All Star game. Davis is a nightmare matchup on both sides of the ball, he's already one of the league's premier defenders leading the league in blocks this year, an amazing accomplishment for only his second year. Davis utilizes his length to make offensive players take contested shots. Davis is also a great weak side helper, often cleaning up for teammates' mistakes with timely blocks.
     Offensively, Davis is a coach's dreams, he runs the floor like no other big man in the league and gets easy fast break points by not assuming that a fast break layup is an automatic two points. Here is a perfect example of a full end to end display of Davis's skill set, he rotates on the pick and roll to stop the guard, then returns to contest a shot by Bass, and finally runs the floor. How many big men in the league can you think off the top of your head who could complete that sequence so beautifully? Davis does a lot of his damage in these fast break situation. Often times Davis is not the recipient of a pass but instead just grabbing offensive rebounds and running ahead of everybody else to get easy points, look at the following two plays.
Davis has a soft touch around the rim, he likes to post up and use a quick right handed floater that is impossible to block. In addition, in most pick and roll situations (as well as when he attacks the rim off a face-up situation) he likes to finish over the top of his defender with two handed layups, not something you see quite often around the association.
      Davis also developed a nice mid range jumpshot, he's good off the pick and pop and can hit it off the dribble, he also shoots free throws at a 79% clip which is pretty solid. Davis has a bright future, and we expect him to keep rising to eventually become the top Power Forward on this list. He still needs to develop a more solid back to the basket game, and he needs to pick up his weight. In addition to that, he needs to foul a little bit less(He averaged 3 fouls a game last season) and stay off the injury list, he only played 67 games last season after only playing 64 his rookie year. However, it is unquestionable that Davis is a stat stuffer and has a very bright future, that is why he's at #4 and we expect him higher than this next season.
Here is Anthony Davis' top 10 plays this season.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Top Power Forwards entering 2014-2015: #5 Dirk Nowitzki

Image from IBtimes.com
We start off our top 5 Power Forwards entering this upcoming NBA season with Dirk Nowitzki at number 5. Nowitzki had a subpar 2012-2013 NBA season due to injuries, he only played in 53 games and averaged 17.3 PPG(The lowest since his second season in the NBA). He bounced back this last season however, playing 80 games and getting his production back up to what we've come to expect. While it was hard to place him at #5 over the immortal Tim Duncan, it is unquestionable that at this point in their respective careers, Nowitzki produces more, and is required to do more than Tim Duncan. That of course, has a lot to do with Popovich's management of Duncan's playing time.
      Nowitzki averaged 21.7 points on 49% FG and 39% from the behind the arc. He remains one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the game. His one leg step back off the high post remains one of the most unstoppable moves in the game today. Nowitzki likes to set up shop in the mid to high post area, from there he does a great job of using his length and size to get off his jumpshot, he shot a blistering 74% on two pointers this season. Nowitzki also runs the floor better than most bigs in the league, he does a great job of running at the rim in fast break situations to get easy dunks, but also is the team's most lethal trailer option to shoot the three. In addition, Dirk is lethal in the Pick and Pop option, something Ellis and Calderon quickly learned. He fades out quickly to the three point line, making his defenders uncomfortable with having to defend out so far and opens up driving lanes for his guards.
     Nowitzki's use of the pump fake is also very effective, look at the next 3 plays here. Nowitzki loves to use the pump fake to get his defender in the air, and get off a clean looking shot, he is lethal at this for a couple of reasons, the first is how often he gets people to bite on it, the second, is he uses the pump fake to bump his defender and get his shot off (should they not bite on it), and if the defender still manages to contest, more often than not he hits the shot anyway.
     His ability to hit tough shots is unmatched and Nowitzki is still one of the clutch shotmakers of today's game. One of the things that keeps him still on this list is how reliable he is down the stretch, he shot 89% from the free throw line this year and isn't prone to miss big free throw shots down the stretch, as lets say, Blake Griffin or Kevin Love(Here's Love infamously missing three crucial free throws to win a game this year).
     While Nowitzki has never been known for his defense, he is not a complete liability on the defensive side of the ball, and his rebounding has always left something to be desired (even though he averages 10 RPG for his career in the playoffs). However, his offensive prowess more than makes up for it, and which is why Dirk is still in our top 5 for his position for another year.
Here is Nowitzki's top 10 plays from before the All Star break.